Analysis of Appreciably above normal maximum temperatures across west and southern parts of India during 13-19 February, 2020

  1.  Introduction

 In this report an attempt is made to analyze the above normal temperatures across west and southern parts of India during 13-19 February, 2020. Middle February is a transition period from winter to summer in southern parts of India. During this period temperatures rises gradually over southern parts of the country. This pattern varies from year to year. This year appreciably above normal maximum temperatures reported over west and southern parts of the country during 13-19 February. Media also reported the same. On 17th February, Santacruz (Mumbai) reported highest maximum temperature in the country that was 38.1°C. 

2.  Observed temperature over West and southern parts of India 13-19 February

Refer table 1 and 2

Table 1:    Report on above normal temperatures over South and West India During 13 to 19 February 2020.

          DateMaximum Temperature Departures (Places)Highest Maximum Temperature in °C
Markedly above normal (5.1°C or more)Appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.0°C)Above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C)
13-02-2020   Many places- Konkan & Goa. Few places- Saurashtra & Kutch.  Most places- Coastal Karnataka. Many places- Gujarat Region, Vidarbha, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep. Isolated places- North Interior Karnataka and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karikal.38.4Gulbarga (North Interior Karnataka).  
14-02-2020 Most places- Konkan & Goa. Few places- Saurashtra & Kutch and Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam.Most places- Lakshadweep. Many places- Vidarbha, Odisha, Coastal Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal. Few places- Gujarat Region Isolated places- Telangana, South Interior Karnataka.37.7-Vengurla (Konkan & Goa).  
15-02-2020 Isolated places-  Saurashtra & KutchMost places- Coastal Karnataka. Many places- Konkan & Goa, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal. Few places- Gujarat Region Isolated places- Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Lakshadweep.  37.1-Palakkad (Kerala & Mahe).
16.02.2020 Many places– Saurashtra & Kutch.Most places- East Rajasthan and Gujarat region. Many places- Konkan & Goa, Coastal & North Interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep. Few places- South Interior Karnataka. Isolated places- Telangana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam.36.6- Gulbarga (North Interior Karnataka).
17.02.2020Few places- Saurashtra & Kutch and Konkan & Goa.Many places– Gujarat region; Few places– Kerala & Mahe.Few places– Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and Coastal Karnataka. Isolated places– Interior Karnataka and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. 38.1- Santacruz (Mumbai).                               
18.02.2020Many places-Saurashtra & Kutch and Konkan & Goa.Most places- Gujarat Region. Isolated places– Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Kerala & Mahe.Few places-Coastal & South Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal. Isolated places– Lakshadweep.  37.5- Vengurla (Konkan & Goa).
19.02.2020Few places- Saurashtra & Kutch.Many places- Gujarat Region and Konkan & Goa. Isolated places– Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra.Many places– Marathawada and Kerala & Mahe. Few places- Coastal Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal. Isolated places-North Interior Karnataka.36.6 – Amreli (Saurashtra & Kutch) and Gulbarga (North Interior Karnataka).

Table 2: Stations exceeding 35 °C Maximum Temperature

DateSub-divisionsMaximum Temperature (Stations) in °C
14.02.2020Konkan & Goa Coastal Karnataka North Interior Karnataka Kerala TamilnaduMumbai- 35.1, Ratnagiri-36.6 & Vengurla- 37.7, Karwar -36.5, Gulbarga-35.4, Cannur-35.2, Pallakad-36.4, Thrissur-36.3, Cochin-35.4, Kottyam-36.4, Punalur-37.5, Selem-35.1, K. Paramarthy-35.5, Madurai-35.4
15.02.2020Madhya Maharashtra,  Marathbada Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka,  Kerala,  TamilnaduAhmednagar-35.4, Solapur-35.2, Karwar-35.4, Gulbarga-36.9,  Cannur-35.4, Pallakad-37.1, Thrissur-36.5, Kottyam-35.5, Punalur-35.5, Selem-36.2, K. Paramarthy-35.8, Madurai-35.6, Tiruchchirapalli-35.2
16.02.2020Saurashtra & Kutch,  Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka, KeralaBhuj-35.1, Surat-35.9, Sanghi-35.2, Shirli-35.1, Manglore-35.7, Gulbarga-36.6, Cannur-36.2, Thrissur-36.5, Kottyam-35.7, Punalur-36.6, Kozhocode-36.0
17.02.2020Saurashtra & Kutch, Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidharbha,   Konkan & Goa Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka, KeralaBhuj-35.8, Nalia-35.4, Kandla-35.2, Rajkot-35.8, Porbandar-36.2, Amerli-36.2, Mahua-35.4, Surat-36.4, Dessa-35.9, Sanghi-35.3, Solapur-36.0, Ahmednagar-35.0, Akola-35.2, Mumbai/Santacuuz-38.1, Ratnagiri-36.8, Vengurla-36.4, Goa-36.5, Karwar-35.3, Manglore-36.8, Gulbarga-36.7 Cannur-37.2, Thrissur-35.7, Kottyam-37.8, Punnalur-36.6, Cochin-36.7
18.02.2020Saurashtra & Kutch, Gujarat Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka, Kerala.Bhuj-36.8, Nalia-36.0, Kandla-35.4, Rajkot-36.8, Porbandar-36.0, Amerli-36.8, Mahua-36.0, Dwarka-35.3, Sundernagar-35.8, Keshod-36.6),Surat-36.9, Baroda-36.1, Ahmedabad-35.3, Sanghi-35.4, Solapur-35.6, Akola-35.9 Ahmednagar-36.2, Jeur-35.2, Mumbai/Santacuuz-36.5, Ratnagiri-37.0, Vengurla-37.5, Goa-36.3, Kolaba-35.6, Karwar-36.2, Manglore-35.2, Gulbarga-36.2, Cannur-37.2, Thrissur-35.3, Kottyam-35.5, Punnalur-35.5, Cochin-36.0), Tamilnadu (Madurai-36.8
19.02.2020Saurashtra & Kutch, Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Konkan & Goa, Marathbada, Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka, Kerala, TamilnaduRajkot-35.3, Amreli-36.6, Sundernagar-35.7, Baroda-35.0,  Jalgaon-35.4, Malegaon-36.0, Sanghi-35.5, Jeur-35.0, Akola-36.2, Brahemapuri-36.0, Mumbai/Santacuuz-34.8, Parbhani-35.1, Solapur-36.4, Ratnagiri-35.1,  Manglore-35.1, Gulbarga-36.6, Cannur-35.4, Thrissur-35.7, Kottyam-35.2, Cochin-36.1, Madurai-36.4

From the above it is observed that about 5 stations in Kerala are reporting maximum temperatures above 35°C daily. It is also observed that   on 17.02.2020 & 18.02.2020 the number of stations more than 35°C increased in Saurashtra & Kutch, Gujarat, Konkan & Goa and Mumbai recorded the highest temperature in that day. Then on 19.02.2020 temperature reduced slightly and the number of stations with maximum temperature more than 35°C reduced. Madurai in Tamilnadu also reporting maximum temperature above 35°C.

3. Associated synoptic features and wind analysis

Figure 1 shows IMD: GFS Model (12 Km) 925 hPa Wind (kt) for 00 UTC of 13th to 19th February, 2020.  

Figure 1(a) shows that on 13th February, strong north-westerly winds were prevailing over north-west India, however south-westerly, easterly winds over south India on that day. Figure 1(b) & (c) show that on 14th & 15th February, strong north-westerly winds were prevailing over north India, however southerly, south-easterly winds were prevailing over west and south India on that day. Figure 1(d) shows that on 16th February, southerly, south-easterly winds were prevailing over west and south India on that day. Figure 1(e) shows that on 17th February, easterly, south-easterly & South-westerly winds were prevailing over west and south India on that day. Figure 1(f) shows that on 18th February, south-easterly & South-westerly winds were prevailing over west and south India on that day. Figure 1(g) shows that on 19th February, southerly & South-easterly winds were prevailing over west and south India on that day.

Table 3: Feb 2020 – List of Western Disturbances (WD)

1. Western Disturbance (30th January, 2020 -02nd February, 2020)
2.  Western Disturbance (02nd February, 2020 -06nd February, 2020)
3. Western Disturbance (05th February, 2020 -08th February, 2020)
4. Western Disturbance (10th February, 2020 – 13th February, 2020)
5. Western Disturbance (11th February, 2020 – 15th February, 2020)
6. Western Disturbance (15th February, 2020 – 17th February, 2020)

7. Western Disturbance (17th February, 2020 –     19th February, 2020)  

Table 3 shows the list of WD affected northern India during 1st fortnight of Feb 2020. It shows total 7 WDs (average is 2 WD) have affected.

Northwesterly winds could not penetrate up to North Tamil Nadu and North Karnataka and Kerala. These winds remained absent as successive Western Disturbances kept inducing cyclonic circulations over Rajasthan and central parts of the country, leading to the occasional formation of confluence that blocked cold northerly winds from reaching southern states. Interaction between easterly and westerly could get rain over eastern India but not over south and west India. Frequent WDs impacted North, Central, east and northeast India.

From the synops of different stations it is found that most of the time week winds up to 5 knots prevailed with no northerly components. Westerly, easterly or south-westerly winds prevailed and this helped for higher temperature over these areas.

Possible reasons for above normal temperature in South India including west coast and Saurashtra & Kutch and Gujarat may be;

1.During past six to seven days no major rainfall activity reported over these areas. Almost weather remained dry over these areas.

2. Transition phase from winter to summer.  Although February is a transition period for southern states from winter season, during this entire winter season, cold wave from the north had not reached the region.

  • Summary

In this report an attempt is made to find out the possible reasons of appreciably above normal maximum temperatures across west and southern part of India during 13-19 February, 2020. Details of the observed maximum temperatures are listed in this report.

During the month of February, 2020 Seven WDs observed and all of them affected North, Central and East and North-East India with good rainfall activities. But such frequent mid latitude WDs resulted westerly pattern to be dominate mode.  Resulting into, no major rainfall activities over the West and South India and mainly dry weather prevailed in most January and February including the period of 13th February to 19th February for these areas. Also, during 13th February to 19th February, no northerly winds prevailed over the region resulting into above normal maximum temperatures during 13th February to 19th February. 

Report Compiled by:

Shashi Kant, Surendra Pratap Singh, R. K. Jenamani

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